WDFW -- Summer Chum Salmon Conservation Initiative

Summer Chum Salmon Conservation Initiative
An Implementation Plan to Recover Summer Chum in the Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca Region

Executive Summary

Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca summer chum experienced a severe drop in abundance in the 1980s, and returns decreased to all time lows in 1989 and 1990 with less than a thousand spawners each year. In response to this alarming decline, the state and tribal co-managers began to implement harvest management actions in 1992 to afford greater protection to summer chum in terminal area fisheries and, together with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and citizen groups, initiated three summer chum hatchery supplementation programs. Those actions were expanded in subsequent years and led to the development of thie Summer Chum Salmon Conservation Initiative - An Implementation Plan to Recover Summer Chum in the Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca Region.

In March of 1999, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) determined that the summer chum originating from Hood Canal and the Strait of Juan de Fuca represented an Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU), and formally listed these fish under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) as a threatened species.

The conservation initiative (or plan) has been developed and agreed upon by the WDFW and the Point No Point Treaty (PNPT) Tribes under their authority to co-manage salmon pursuant to the rules and orders of U.S. v. Washington. The plan is consistent with and fulfills the intent of section 13 of the Puget Sound Salmon Management Plan, which calls for the development of comprehensive regional resource management plans for Puget Sound stocks of salmon. In addition, the goal, direction, and provisions of the summer chum recovery initiative are consistent with the principles of the WDFW Wild Salmonid Policy. The USFWS and NMFS have also participated in the development of the plan at the request of the WDFW and the PNPT Tribes.

Organization of the conservation initiative is in five major parts: the Foreword, which sets the stage; Part One - Life History and Stock Assessment, which describes summer chum life history, discusses the available data, and provides stock evaluation tools; Part Two - Region-wide Factors for Decline, which contains a region-wide analysis and summary of those factors believed responsible for the recent decline of summer chum; Part Three - Evaluation and Mitigation of Factors for Decline, which provides more detailed, location-specific analysis of factors affecting summer chum and presents strategies for their protection and recovery; and Part Four - Summary of Plan Elements, which contains a summary description of the management components, and also describes specific actions, evaluation and monitoring, roles of the participating parties, and time frames.

It is the intent of WDFW and the PNPT Tribes to implement the initiative as a comprehensive regional management plan, as provided for in the Puget Sound Salmon Management Plan. The implementation of the elements of the plan that are specifically within the jurisdiction of the state and tribal co-managers would then be under a Federal court order. This will provide assurances that the sections of the plan dealing with the elements of artificial production, ecological interactions, and harvest management will be carried out consistent with the plan. To facilitate an adaptive management approach, annual reports and five year plan reviews will be conducted to measure overall progress towards recovery and to evaluate and/or revise the strategies and actions provided in the plan.

The habitat element assesses habitat factors for decline and recommends strategies and actions to sustain and rebuild summer chum salmon in this region. The authorities to implement these measures, however, are dispersed through a variety of federal, state and local jurisdictions. The parties to the plan will continue to work with the appropriate jurisdictions to develop the implementation plans and actions for habitat protection and restoration. Habitat implementation plans and actions developed by a variety of agencies and processes are expected to be consistent and integral to the plan and are vital to its success. Furthermore, the plan provides critical guidance to the Salmon Recovery Funding Board, helping to ensure that funded recovery projects in Hood Canal and the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca will have a high likelihood of supporting summer chum recovery.

Summer chum salmon are the earliest returning chum salmon stocks in the Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca region. These stocks have been shown to be genetically distinct from fall and winter timed chum salmon. A total of 11 streams in Hood Canal have been identified as recently having indigenous summer chum populations: Big Quilcene River, Little Quilcene River, Dosewallips River, Duckabush River, Hamma Hamma River, Lilliwaup River, Union River, Tahuya River, Dewatto River, Anderson Creek, and Big Beef Creek. Summer chum are occasionally observed in other Hood Canal drainages, including the Skokomish River which once supported a large summer chum population. Summer chum salmon populations in the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca occur in Snow and Salmon creeks in Discovery Bay, in Jimmycomelately Creek in Sequim Bay, and have been reported in Chimacum Creek. Recent stock assessment data indicate that summer chum also return to the Dungeness River, but the magnitude of returns is unknown.

Summer chum spawning occurs from late August through late October, generally within the lowest one to two miles of the streams. Depending upon temperature regimes in spawning streams, eggs and alevins develop in the redds for approximately 18-20 weeks before emerging as fry between February and the last week of May. Summer chum fry emerge from the stream gravels and immediately commence migration downstream to estuarine areas, with total brood year migration from freshwater ending within roughly 30 days for smaller streams and rivers.

In Puget Sound, chum fry have been observed through annual estuarine area fry surveys to reside for their first few weeks in the top 2-3 centimeters of surface waters and extremely close to the shoreline. Chum fry maintain a nearshore distribution until they reach a size of about 45-50 mm, at which time they move to deeper off-shore areas.

Summer chum entering the estuary are thought to immediately commence migration seaward. After two to four years of rearing in the northeast Pacific Ocean, maturing Puget Sound-origin chum salmon follow a southerly migration path parallel to the coastlines of southeast Alaska and British Columbia. Summer chum mature primarily at 3 and 4 years of age with low numbers returning at age 5. They enter the Strait of Juan de Fuca from the first week of July through September and the Hood Canal terminal marine area from early August through the end of September. Summer chum adults may mill in front of their stream of origin for up to ten to twelve days before entering freshwater to spawn.

The quality and quantity of the available stock assessment data for summer chum salmon varies for individual parameters. New data will be incorporated into the recovery plan as it becomes available. The following are summaries of the utility of the various types of summer chum stock assessment data.

Escapement and Runsize - Both escapement and runsize (run re-construction) databases have been reviewed and substantially improved to provide the best available information for use in recovery planning. The summer chum salmon recovery plan focuses on escapement and runsize information for the 1974 through 1998 return years.

Age Data and Productivity Estimates - Because of the multi-brood life history pattern, resulting in returns of 3 to 5 year old summer chum salmon each year, any direct measures of their productivity necessarily depends on the availability of reliable age data. The age data that have been previously collected are not of sufficient quality to meet this need. A point that must be emphasized is that because of the lack of useable age data, no estimates of summer chum productivity (brood return or survival rates) are used in the recovery plan. The collection of appropriate age data for deriving survival rates is a high priority.

Period of Decline - The summer chum salmon populations of Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca streams are affected by different environmental and harvest impacts, and display varying survival patterns and stock status trends. The summer chum stocks from both regions have dropped in abundance, but at different times and with different trends of abundance. While the rate and pattern of decline varies by individual population, all Hood Canal summer chum populations (except Union River) experienced a decline after 1978, and Strait of Juan de Fuca populations dropped in abundance ten years later (see, for example, figure below). Some improvements in total run size and escapements for these summer chum stocks have been noted in recent years, however, the time frame is short, and some individual populations are still experiencing very small escapements.

The evaluation tools that will be used to identify summer chum stocks performing poorly and to measure the success of recovery measures are a major component of the recovery plan. Three independent assessment methods are presented below, each serving a separate purpose.

Stock Definition and Status (SASSI) - The first stock evaluation approach reviews and updates the summer chum stock definitions and status ratings using the SASSI criteria for identifying stocks based on their degree of reproductive isolation, and rating the status of stocks into the general categories of healthy, depressed, critical, extinct, and unknown. For the recovery plan, the most recent information on historical and current summer chum salmon distribution and on the genetic profiles of the populations has been reviewed. This analysis has produced an updated list of 16 summer chum stocks, which form the basic population units used throughout the recovery plan. Status ratings for each stock are also presented, primarily for use in various other processes and evaluations that are based on the SASSI approach. The recovery plan does not directly use these SASSI status ratings, but instead relies on the more detailed status evaluations below; which specifically focus on annual escapement numbers and extinction risk for summer chum salmon.

Known, recently extinct stocks have also been included where there is strong evidence to show that a stock formerly existed but is now extirpated from its former stream. Of the 16 stocks identified (see table below), seven are recent extinctions. The determination that these are distinct stocks is based solely on past distribution and presumed past reproductive isolation.

It is likely that summer chum were historically distributed among additional streams within the region. For several streams, relatively recent evidence indicates that summer chum were historically present. However, this evidence is fragmentary and judged insufficient to identify stocks. A distinction is made here between stock and historic distribution, where a stock is defined under SASSI as being (or formerly has been) self-sustaining and reproductively isolated from other stocks based on available evidence. The assessment of the historic use of these streams by summer chum salmon could change as more information becomes available.

Annual Abundance Evaluation - The second evaluation approach compares spawner escapements and runsizes to stock-specific critical abundance thresholds (see table below). This annual process reviews escapements, and identifies (flags) any stock that falls below its threshold. At the end of each season, all flagged stocks will undergo an in-depth review of stock performance, and possible causes of the low escapement or runsize will be identified. If necessary, remedial measures will be incorporated into recovery activities the following year.

Stock Extinction Risk - The third procedure is used to estimate extinction risk based on the numbers of effective spawners representing each summer chum stock. This evaluation assesses extinction risk using an approach described in the paper Prioritizing Pacific Salmon Stocks for Conservation, by Allendorf et al. (1997). The approach focuses on the minimum numbers of spawners required to have a viable population, and estimates the risk of extinction for populations below the viability threshold. This assessment identifies two stocks that are currently rated as having a high risk of extinction; Lilliwaup and Jimmycomelately. A moderate risk of extinction rating is assigned to the Hamma Hamma and Union stocks, and Dungeness is rated of special concern because of the lack of stock assessment information. The remaining summer chum stocks currently have a low risk of extinction.

Like all Pacific salmon, summer chum salmon are influenced by a variety of factors, with both positive and negative consequences for their overall survival. Part Two examines region-wide factors affecting production, both natural and human caused, to identify those that have been observed to change in concert with the recent summer chum salmon decline.

Those factors implicated in the recent abrupt decline of summer chum salmon do not necessarily include those effects that over time, gradually and cumulatively have impacted salmon survivals. For example, many negative anthropogenic habitat-related impacts affecting salmon populations have occurred prior to the period of recent decline addressed here. Additionally, nearly two decades have passed since the beginning of the recent decline of summer chum, and a broader range of negative conditions now exist. All negative factors must be addressed to effect recovery, stability, and sustainability of Hood Canal and the Strait of Juan de Fuca summer chum salmon stocks.

Those factors that can influence summer chum salmon abundance have been examined in an attempt to identify specific sources of mortality that have contributed to the declines of Hood Canal and the Strait of Juan de Fuca summer chum salmon. Potential factors affecting production have been examined individually in the following four categories: 1) climate, 2) ecological interactions, 3) habitat, and 4) harvest.

Among the factors for decline, only the effects of harvest can be readily quantified. Because of this, the ranking of the various factors for decline is necessarily a subjective process. The following four categories are used to rate the various factors for decline: 1) major impact, 2) moderate impact, 3) low or not likely impact, or 4) undetermined impact. The ratings of factors for decline are presented in the table below. Three primary factors have combined to cause the decline of summer chum salmon in both Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca streams; habitat loss, fishery exploitation, and climate related changes in stream flow patterns.

The general assessment of factors for decline of summer chum salmon has focused specifically on changes in fish production and potential survival factors that occurred twenty years ago in Hood Canal and ten years ago in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Because of the time that has passed since the declines in the two regions, recovery may not involve just the factors that contributed to the decline. Some of the factors discussed above may not have had major, or even moderate impacts on the declines of summer chum salmon, but now may be factors that will slow recovery. Two examples of these kind of factors are the recent increase of the harbor seal population (potential summer chum predators) and recent climate changes causing unfavorable spawning and incubation stream flows, which potentially can slow the rate of recovery.

There have also been a number of factors that are positive for summer chum salmon recovery. One is the successful reduction of Hood Canal terminal area exploitation rates. The average terminal area harvest has been just over 1% during the 1993-1997 seasons. Successful supplementation projects on two stocks are increasing the numbers of returning summer chum adults to two streams (Quilcene River and Salmon Creek). There have also been meaningful changes in the management and culture of hatchery salmonids in the region, designed to reduce negative interactions with summer chum juveniles. The combined effects of these changes in summer chum salmon management have contributed to the increased escapements in recent years. However, additional measures, particularly with respect to habitat protection and restoration, are required for successful recovery of the summer chum.

Part Three of the plan evaluates factors for decline for summer chum salmon at the watershed and management unit levels, and provides specific strategies for recovery. It is arranged in five sections; Artificial Production, Ecological Interactions, Habitat, Harvest Management, and Program Integration and Adaptive Management. Each of these sections provides specific recommendations for actions to aid the recovery of summer chum stocks.

Goals and Objectives - The following statement presents the goals for artificial production, which are directed at only those existing populations identified as at risk of extinction in the plan, and also are directed at selected, extirpated populations within the region.

The co-manager's objectives in developing supplementation and reintroduction projects are: 1) to rebuild summer chum populations at risk of extinction, 2) to restore summer chum to streams where a viable spawning population no longer exists, 3) to maintain or increase summer chum populations of selected streams to a level that will allow their use as broodstock donors for streams where the summer chum population has been lost, and 4) to avoid and reduce the risk of deleterious genetic and ecological effects.

Benefits and Risks - Implied within the list of objectives is the intent to consider potential benefits and risks associated with artificial production. Potential benefits to natural populations include: 1) reduction of short-term extinction risk, 2) preservation of populations while factors for decline are being addressed, 3) speeding recovery, 4) establishing a reserve population for use if the natural population suffers a catastrophic loss, 5) re-seeding vacant habitat, and 6) providing scientific information regarding the use of supplementation in conserving natural populations. Potential hazards to natural populations include: 1) partial or total hatchery failure resulting in a loss of summer chum that had been placed in the hatchery, 2) ecological effects from predation, competition or disease transfer, 3) genetic effects from loss of genetic variability between or within populations, 4) effects from selection or reducing the population size of donor stocks, and 5) effects on other salmonid populations and species.

Operational Criteria and Adaptive Management - Operational criteria are described that provide guidelines on how to supplement and reintroduce summer chum while minimizing the risks of hazards. Specific project operational recommendations are made regarding how broodstocking, incubation, rearing, and release or planting of summer chum should occur. Adaptive management guidelines are also provided that describe when to modify or stop a project.

Monitoring and Evaluation - Monitoring and evaluating the effects of supplementation and reintroduction on the natural summer chum populations, and monitoring the performance of the programs in effecting the recovery of summer chum, are essential to the successful use of artificial production. The basic approach to monitoring and evaluation will be to collect information that will help determine: 1) the degree of success of each project, 2) if a project is unsuccessful, why it failed, 3) what measures can be implemented to adjust a program that is not meeting objectives set forth for the project, and 4) when to stop a supplementation project. Descriptions are provided of the specific elements of monitoring and evaluation actions consistent with this approach.

Project Selection - To better accommodate realization of potential benefits and avoidance of hazards, a selection process has been applied to the existing and recently extinct stocks (identified in Part One) to identify candidates for supplementation and reintroduction. Stocks with existing supplementation and reintroduction projects are included in this selection process to show how they would fare in comparison to the other streams.

The first part of the selection process is a general assessment that considers the need, urgency, and practicality of supplementation/reintroduction for each stock. The second part of the selection process subjects each candidate stock to an assessment focusing on potential risks from hatchery failure, ecological hazards, and genetic hazards. The results of the selection process are discussed and recommendations are provided on whether or not to proceed with a supplementation or reintroduction project (see following table).

Recommended summer chum salmon supplementation and reintroduction projects.
Existing Projects	Recommended to Continue Supplementation Reintroduction Recommended with Qualification Supplementation	Big Quilcene, Lilliwaup, Salmon Big Beef, Chimacum Hamma Hamma (requires effective broodstocking)
New Projects	Supplementation Reintroduction	Jimmycomelately None
Potential Future Projects	Supplementation Reintroduction	Union (for developing as donor stock) Tahuya, Dewatto
Projects Not Recommended at This Time	Supplementation Reintroduction	Dungeness, Dosewallips, Duckabush Skokomish, Anderson, Finch

Funding Priorities and Descriptions of Existing Projects - Priorities for funding recommended actions related to supplementation and reintroduction are described, including specific projects, monitoring and research activities. Detailed descriptions of ongoing supplementation and reintroduction projects are provided as an appendix report.

There are complex sets of interactions that occur between organisms that share an ecosystem, and summer chum salmon can be affected in both positive and negative ways. Such ecological interactions can include factors like competition for food and space, direct predation, sources of nutrient input to the ecosystem, etc. This section only addresses those negative competition and predation impacts that were identified in Part Two as; 1) potentially contributing to the summer chum decline (hatchery salmonids), and 2) possibly impacting recovery (marine mammal predation).

Hatchery Salmonids - The potential effects on summer chum salmon caused by hatchery production of anadromous salmonids are addressed by the following steps:

The intent of the above described process is to reduce all moderate and high risks of hatchery programs to low risks. The co-managers are already implementing the risk aversion and monitoring and evaluation measures recommended in this section of the plan.

Marine Mammals - The impacts of predation by two pinniped species, harbor seal and California sea lion, on summer chum salmon requires further study. NMFS (1997b) has reported that where existing information on the seriously depleted status of many salmonid stocks is sufficient, it may warrant actions to remove pinnipeds in areas where pinnipeds prey upon depressed salmonid populations. Therefore, if predation on critical summer chum stocks is identified as substantial, mitigative measures may be applied to control the predation, including institution of federally authorized pinniped removal programs.

Habitat is a critical element in the recovery of summer chum in Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca, because without high-quality habitat there is little likelihood that species recovery will be possible. This section of the plan initiates the discussion of habitat issues by describing the association between summer chum life stages and their habitats, in the streams and estuaries of Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca. Important natural processes that maintain these habitats are also discussed. To develop watershed-specific protection and restoration recommendations, available habitat data have been gathered, and aerial photos of streamside forests and subestuaries⁽¹⁾ have been examined. aerial photos of streamside forests and subestuaries have been examined. Habitat factors Habitat factors (stream flow, temperature, water quality, sediment, channel complexity, streamside forest condition, fish passage, and subestuary condition) have been rated by their degree of degradation in individual watersheds. Habitat factor ratings have shaped the development of watershed-specific protection and restoration measures (presented in an appendix report), and have allowed the summarization and comparison of conditions across watersheds.

While the evaluation of nearshore estuarine habitat impacts to summer chum have not been done in detail, available information suggests that shoreline development (bulkhead and dock construction) threatens summer chum habitat at the scale of the entire Hood Canal and Strait of Juan de Fuca region. This suggests that estuarine habitat recovery planning and implementation must be coordinated regionally.

Protection and restoration strategies for each habitat limiting factor are described in the plan. In most cases protection strategies are needed throughout entire watersheds (not just the portion of the channel used by summer chum). Restoration options appropriate to a particular habitat limiting factor are also outlined. The plan recommendations stress the need for protection and re-establishment of natural watershed, estuarine, and nearshore processes that are critical to the maintenance of summer chum habitat. The plan provides guidance to focus local recovery activities on the key limiting factors in individual watersheds, to help prioritize restoration funding to make the most efficient use of limited resources.

Both protection and restoration measures will have to be fully integrated into a coordinated recovery strategy involving landowners, community groups, the tribes, and government agencies. Habitat monitoring is discussed in this section of the plan, which stresses the need for a long-term focus and periodic evaluation so that learning can occur from successes and failures during recovery plan implementation. Finally, this section of the plan identifies key federal, state, and tribal government entities, and links their mandates and responsibilities with actions needed to fully recover summer chum habitat. Current institutional impediments, enforcement problems, and oversight limitations that will need to be overcome are also identified, and potential pathways to achievement of full recovery are provided.

The short-term goal of the harvest strategies outlined in the plan is to protect the summer chum populations within Hood Canal and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca from further decline by minimizing the effect of harvest as a major factor for decline. The long-term goal of these strategies is to assist in the restoration and maintenance of self-sustaining summer chum populations while maintaining harvest opportunities on co-mingled salmon of other species.

Recommended harvest management measures are designed to limit fishing mortality to a rate that permits a high proportion of the summer chum run to return to spawning grounds, and thus accommodate the maintenance and rebuilding of self-sustaining populations. Furthermore, the measures will apportion harvest impacts between or within management units⁽²⁾ based on population status and individual population characteristics, and to result in a broad distribution of spawners throughout all stocks in the HC-SJF region. These harvest management actions, when coordinated with habitat protection/restoration and supplementation actions, should lead to the maintenance and restoration of genetic and biological diversity within the region.

Base Conservation Regime - The harvest management strategies described in the plan are expected to result in significant reductions of total exploitation rates on HC-SJF summer chum, compared to those observed in the period from 1975 to 1992. The plan accomplishes that by establishing an annual fishing regime (called the Base Conservation Regime) for Canadian, Washington pre-terminal, and Washington terminal area fisheries, which is designed to minimize incidental impacts to summer chum salmon, while providing opportunity for fisheries conducted for the harvest of other species. The fishery specific management measures comprising this regime are outlined in tabular form in the plan. Actions include closure of summer chum-directed fisheries, delayed or truncated

fishery openings for other salmonid species designed to protect approximately 90% or more of the run of each HC-SJF summer chum management unit, chum non-retention in fisheries directed at other species, and area closures around freshwater spawning tributaries. The expected reduction in incidental interceptions, relative to the high rates observed during previous years is approximately 78% for Canadian fisheries, 65% for U.S. pre-terminal, and 92% for Washington terminal area fisheries. The Base Conservation Regime will conserve, and not appreciably reduce the likelihood of survival and recovery of HC-SJF summer chum in the wild. Many of the harvest restrictions incorporated in the Base Conservation Regime have been initiated in recent years. The result has been a major reduction in exploitation rates and harvest of summer chum salmon (see figure).

Exploitation Rate Expectations - The management actions described in the Base Conservation Regime are expected to result in, on the average, a 10.9% total (range = 3.3-15.3%) exploitation rate on the Hood Canal management units and 8.8% (range=2.8-11.8%) exploitation rate on Strait of Juan de Fuca management units (see table).

Harvest Regime Modification - If exploitation rates are higher than expected, or the critical thresholds for abundance or escapement (described in Part One) are not met, the co-managers will investigate whether or not to implement additional harvest management measures (as provided for in the plan), which may be necessary to assist in restoring the management unit or stock to non-critical status. When exploitation rates are less than expected, or population-based recovery goals are exceeded, then the possibility of liberalizing the harvest regime may be considered. However, the latter situation is not expected to occur for several years. Also, the co-managers still must develop the population-based recovery goals and determine how to structure a recovery harvest regime (expected to occur in 2000).

Fishery Performance Standards - By achieving fishery performance standards, the harvest element will contribute to the stability and recovery of the HC-SJF summer chum. The following fishery performance standards will be used to assess whether the harvest management strategy is being successfully implemented.

Compliance - Regulations are adopted consistent with the plan's management actions, and enforcement patrols indicate a high level of compliance with regulations adopted consistent with the plan.

Exploitation Rates - Exploitation rates are within the identified range in any year. At the time of plan review the rates are within the expected range and not clustered toward either extreme of the range.

Preseason Forecasts - Annual run size forecasts are a component of our performance standards for regime assessment and modification, and efforts should be made to ensure they are as precise and accurate as possible.

Compliance and Enforcement - "Compliance" is adherence, by each of the parties, to the guidelines, mandates and performance standards of the plan, including adoption of any necessary rules to implement their responsibilities under the plan. Compliance shall be assured through the application of U.S. v Washington rules and procedures. "Enforcement" shall mean the efforts of each party to implement the guidelines, measures and standards of the plan, including the enforcement of rules adopted to implement the guidelines, measures and standards.

Harvest Management Monitoring and Assessment - Specific, integrated monitoring programs shall be established to improve stock assessment methodologies as well as effectiveness of harvest management actions and objectives. These programs should include, at least: 1) consistent escapement monitoring methods, 2) identification and quantification of harvest contributions, 3) assessment of survival rates to recruitment by age, and 4) assessment of stock productivity and productive capacity. Escapement and harvest monitoring form the core elements of the monitoring program. These core elements are stable and will continue at or above current levels. Information gained from the other suggested monitoring activities would improve management, but additional funding and resources will be required for implementation. The co-managers have designed the management actions in this plan to provide sufficient protection for summer chum populations at the current levels of monitoring. The co-managers commit to maintaining the core elements of the monitoring programs. The additional monitoring activities are important over the long term, and funding support will be sought for them.

The summer chum salmon conservation initiative is intended to be an integrated plan, with each element contributing in concert with the other elements, leading to a successful outcome in restoring these summer chum populations. Each of the preceding sections of Part Three addresses a specific element of the plan and defines how the performance (compliance and effectiveness) of the specific strategies and actions relevant to that element will be evaluated. However, overall plan success can only be measured by how well the populations of summer chum respond. The following section describes the measures that will be used to evaluate the performance of the plan relative to specific population criteria.

Critical Threshold Response - If any management unit or stock falls below its critical abundance or escapement threshold, the co-managers will: 1) promptly identify any emergency actions that can be taken immediately to respond to the critical condition, and 2) within six months, prepare an assessment of the factors resulting in this failure to determine if actions and modifications to the plan are necessary to promptly restore the management unit or stock to non-critical status. The emergency response will include any actions that can be implemented to avoid further declines in abundance while the causes for the failure are being evaluated and corrective actions developed.

Annual Plan Report - Annually, management actions and their results are assessed for compliance with the specific plan provisions, including the determination if any critical population thresholds have been triggered. In the preceding sections on Artificial Production, Ecological Interactions, and Harvest Management, there are descriptions of annual actions that must be taken to assess compliance with and effectiveness of the plan provisions. By June of each year the co-managers will compile the annual assessments required in Part Three of the plan into an annual plan progress report.

Five Year Plan Review - A five year plan review will assess whether progress towards recovery is being achieved and whether the results of monitoring and evaluation studies indicate a need to revise assumptions and/or strategies and actions. As stocks within management units are rebuilt, the plan review will determine if the conservation and recovery criteria are being met, and will incorporate the results of monitoring and evaluation studies.

Population-Based Performance Standards - Specific population-based performance standard criteria are provided for the following categories.

Abundance - As used in the plan, abundance refers to the total number of recruits or the run size prior to any fishing related mortality. Escapement refers to the portion of the abundance that has "escaped" through the various fisheries and arrived on the spawning grounds. Progress toward recovery of abundance and escapement will be measured by the performance of natural-origin recruits (NOR) of each management unit and the stock(s) within them. The abundance standards are: 1) annual post season estimated abundance must be equal to, or greater than that of the parent brood abundance; 2) it should be stable or increasing and average abundance must be higher than the critical threshold; and 3) annual estimated abundances shall not fall below the critical threshold in more than two of five years.

Productivity - As used in the plan, productivity refers to the ratio of maturing recruits per parent brood spawner. The standards are: 1) five year mean estimated productivity shall be greater than 1.2 recruits per spawner, and 2) the number of recruits per spawner when management units are at or near critical thresholds must be stable or increasing.

Escapement - Annual NOR escapements shall be: 1) stable or increasing, and 2) average escapements must be higher than the critical thresholds. Information concerning the productivity and productive capacity of the stock(s) shall be used to further refine the thresholds themselves.

Management Actions - At a minimum, the plan strategies and actions shall result in stable recruit abundances at current levels, while ensuring that escapement rates are high. The plan's strategies shall be considered successful if progress toward recovery is demonstrated by positive trends in NOR abundance. Strategies and actions directed at management units or stocks whose abundance is below their currently estimated thresholds, will be considered successful if they stop and reverse the decline in productivity and/or abundance.

Part Four provides tabular summaries to show what and where specific objectives, strategies, and actions are to be applied, and by whom, to meet the plan's goal of protecting and restoring the summer chum runs. Additionally, this part of the plan discusses how the plan goal and ESA objectives are being addressed, the development of population-based recovery goals, and implementation of the plan.

Plan objectives, strategies, and actions are summarized in tabular descriptions of Artificial Production, Ecological Interactions, Harvest Management, Habitat, Monitoring and Evaluation, and Program Integration and Adaptive Management. For each objective, one or more actions/strategies is described: including the participants with jurisdiction/authority, additional partners, status of available resources/funding, and time frame. These summaries are intended to provide quick reference to the elements of this initiative.

Achieving the Recovery Plan Goal - Recovery activities for summer chum salmon were begun by the co-managers in 1992. The recovery goal was, and still is, to return summer chum salmon to full health and to allow future harvests (see definition in Foreword section). The recovery objectives and actions identified for artificial production, ecological interactions, and harvest management will be immediately implemented by the co-managers (most are already underway). The implementation of strategies for habitat recovery is necessarily an activity that is longer term and will involve participants other than just the co-managers.

In summary, the following results from implementation of the initiative are expected. No further extinctions will occur. Re-introductions of summer chum to currently unpopulated streams will occur through time. The past negative consequences resulting from hatchery fish interactions will be largely eliminated. The impacts of incidental fishery harvests on summer chum stocks will be minimized. Habitat, both freshwater and estuarine, will be gradually returned to a more productive state. Annual monitoring, evaluation, and adaptive management will assure that recovery objectives are achieved. Ultimately, the combined effects of these actions will recover summer chum salmon.

Meeting ESA Objectives - In 1996, NMFS published a document titled "Coastal Salmon Conservation: Working Guidance for Comprehensive Salmon Restoration Initiatives on the Pacific Coast". The purpose of this guidance is to identify the elements that would constitute a successful salmon recovery plan. NMFS described three major criteria to be met by a conservation plan: 1) the plan must have substance; that is, it includes measures that will effect recovery; 2) there must be certainty that the measures will be undertaken by the parties with the authority and means to implement recovery actions; and 3) the plan must include monitoring and assessment that will lead to effective adaptive management and help determine what recovery is and when it occurs. The initiative provides the basis for addressing all three criteria.

Specific quantitative, population-based recovery goals are needed to determine when recovery has been achieved. These goals should define recovery in terms of population abundance, productivity, and diversity. The co-managers are developing a comprehensive set of population-based recovery goals that are scheduled for completion in spring 2000, and will be made available in a supplement to the initiative.

The plan is a comprehensive document that addresses all the components for protection and recovery of summer chum and provides a scientific basis for recommending actions/strategies. The fisheries co-managers, WDFW and PNPT Tribes, are committed to carrying out those provisions of the plan for which they have the authority (measures addressing harvest management, artificial production and ecological interactions). However, particularly with respect to summer chum habitat, the plan is only the first step in a larger planning effort that must continue if recovery of the summer chum is to succeed. Counties and other agencies, who have not participated in the development of the plan, are encouraged to address the recommended strategies and actions that fall under their jurisdiction or authority, including additional planning, that will lead to definition and execution of specific protection and recovery actions. The support of landowners, private non-profit organizations, volunteer groups, and local citizens is also important if these efforts are to succeed. The co-managers will offer technical support in how to interpret and apply the recommendations of the plan.

It is expected that many measures identified in the plan will subsequently be developed further based on recommendations contained in the plan. These should be incorporated into the ESA permitting process, which has been in development during the same time frame as the plan. There may be a need to adapt or modify measures within the plan in response to the permitting requirements (i.e., under ESA sections 4 (d), 7 or 10).

1. The river deltas at the mouths of tributaries to Hood Canal-SJF, which typically include a complex of tidal channel, mudflat, marsh, and eelgrass meadow habitats.
2. A management unit is defined as "A stock or group of stocks which are aggregated for the purposes of achieving a desired spawning objective". Conceptually, the management unit approach is designed to recognize the practical and biological limitations to how we can manage fisheries for salmon populations.