Columbia River Fall Chinook 2004 Preseason Forecasts

 

Stock Group	2004 February Forecasts	2003 Actual Returns	2003 February Forecasts
Lower River Hatchery- LRH	77,100	155,000	115,900
Lower River Wild- LRW	24,100	26,000	24,600
Bonneville Pool Hatchery - BPH	138,000	180,600	96,900
Upriver Bright - URB	292,200	373,200	280,400
Bonneville Upriver Bright - BUB	40,000	82,700	61,900
Pool Upriver Bright - PUB	50,400	67,500	42,900
Columbia River Total	621,800	885,000	622,600
Total return in 2003 of 885,000 is the largest return since at least 1948.

2004 Forecasts

LRH - Good return. Down from recent two years. Similar to recent 10-year average of 75,100.

LRW - Good return. Similar to 2002 and 2003. 10-year average is 14,300.

BPH - Strong return. Down from 2002 and 2003. More than double the 10-year average of 67,000.

URB - Strong return. 4th consecutive year of runs over 200,000. 4th largest return since 1964. Recent 10-year average is 189,100.

BUB - Good return. Down from 2002 and 2003. 10-year average is 30,900.

PUB - Strong return. 2nd largest return in database (1987). 10-year average is 33,800.

Total forecast of 621,800 Columbia River fall chinook is similar to 2003 forecast and would be the 5th largest return since 1948.

February 17, 2004
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee Sub-group